Being a fan of FiveThirtyEight, I just wrote Nate Silver an email presenting an argument about why Mayor Pete has lot more room to grow than the rest of the field. I think they should take him more seriously and I took them to task on their endorsement calculator.
Granted I’m biased and I’m supporting him, but I had a few thoughts today that I felt like mentioning,
I think Biden and Bernie are at their highest levels of support if and until there are significantly fewer people in the race, which could be 9-12 mos from now. As the voters get to know more candidates I believe their share of support only decreases over that time as it redistributes to other candidates. There just isn’t a lot of room to grow, they are pretty well established and it would take something insane to further propel them. What else can they really do to surprise us at this point?
I also think early primary states are a better barometer than national polling at this point.
Biden and Bernie have remained about the same, yet Harris was pretty high to start (what happened in early April?) but she has not regained her original polling. Warren is about at her original level with that earl April dip.
This is the first thing that occurred to me today – How long has Warren had NH staff? January? Looks like Kamala too. What in the world are her campaigns DOING in NH? If they haven’t really helped with polling?
Pete announced NH staff this week. He’s already starting at a decent polling spot between 10-12 with ZERO staff to this point. I can only imagine that once the staff has really gotten going that will only help introduce Pete to more voters and drive up polling.
Here’s also one major benefit Pete has. He’s not known so as he introduces himself and people get attached he’s clearly showing he can add to that support. The other major contenders are known. There is going to be very little opportunity to offer “something new”.
Iowa – Biden, Bernie, doing pretty much the same. Warren appears to have maintained/gotten back to her original support level. Harris has either fallen or maintained her 4/5 place finish. Both Harris and Warren have had staff since February – what have they been doing? Pete announced his Iowa staff this week and same as above, I feel they are known quantities and it’s going to be hard to create that new environment Pete offers. Once people get to know him, they get on board.
South Carolina – Once Biden gets into the polling, everyone drops significantly. Pete was never big here to begin with, but like I said he only has room to grow as folks get to know him. All this talk about Kamala getting alot of the black vote? well where is it? Kamala & Warren have had staff in SC since Feb/March. What have they been doing? We all admit Pete has a problem with outreach to black communities, and if he wins it’ll be because he earned every single one of those votes. Right now, Pete’s problem isn’t that black voters don’t like him, its that they don’t know him yet. He still has room to grow and his staff will be announced shortly.
Endorsements. I assume these become relevant later in the cycle? because They don’t seem to be doing much good yet for those with higher numbers. Booker – all NJ, that’s doing him alot of good. Kamala almost all CA, also not coalition building yet. How has that been helping her yet? Amy Klobuchar has alot of MN endorsements, alot of good that is doing her! Warren has a collection of MA endorsements, what’s that doing for her? Beto has a more diverse endorsement coalition, but what good is that doing him? Pete is low so far on the endorsement list, but arguably ahead of most of the people with more “points” right now.
I’m not following news about fundraising on the other candidates like I am for Mayor Pete but I’d say not a week goes by without a flashy interesting email about Pete’s fundraising.
In my opinion, Pete has the most room to grow, Biden and Bernie likely will only grow down and Kamala and Warren seem stuck.
I know it’s super early, but I dont see this race going beyond Biden/Bernie/Pete/Kamala/Warren and I think Pete has the advantage that people don’t know him yet, but they will soon. Biden and Bernie you said yourselves likely have a 50% cushion of people who picked out of name recognition but aren’t diehard.
I live in Atlanta and I just spent the Sunday/Monday at Pete’s three SC public events and this campaign is Answering hard questions, gaining respect and inspiring voters.
As I’ve been thinking of ways that being Mayor can be a fit for running for president, it’s become clear that its a role where the people know the Mayor of their cities. I wouldn’t be surprised if in this case of Pete, Mayoral endorsements are more meaningful. Notice how just about every event Pete’s got the Mayor introducing him? Do you think voters are more connected to their mayors or their US representation?